Cash Equity at the Final Table
Pro Poker Tournament Tips - Rafe Furst
While playing the final table of the
$1,500 Pot-Limit Hold 'em event, I found myself in a difficult spot
when we were down to four-handed play. I was in the big blind and
Rizen, a tough, respected online tournament pro, was in the small
blind. It was folded to Rizen who announced that he would raise the
pot. With blinds of 15K/30K, his raise made it 90K to me.
At the time, I had about 400K in chips; Rizen had 750k and the other
two players had about 250K each.
I looked at my cards and found As-8s, a pretty solid holding in
short-handed play. I decided to raise the size of the pot. My total
bet was 180. Rizen immediately re-raised, forcing me all-in.
The pot contained 580,000 (400,000 from Rizen, 180,000 from me) and I
had 220,000 remaining. I was getting nearly 3 to 1 on my money, so
this looked like an automatic call. I needed to win the pot only about
27 percent of the time to justify a call.
Against a big pocket pair (other than aces), my A-8 suited would win
about 32 percent of the time. Against a bigger ace (A-K, A-Q, etc), my
A-8 suited would win about 30 percent of the time. There was also a
non-zero (though small) chance I was up against a small pocket pair
and would win about 50 percent of the time.
So this was almost a zero-equity chip decision. That is, folding and
calling would have pretty much same result over the long term. To find
the correct action, I had to look beyond pot odds and consider (a) how
this hand would affect my cash equity for the tournament (i.e., which
action would maximize my expected cash payout) and (b) how this hand
would affect my chances of winning the tournament.
There were two factors I looked at when considering my cash equity:
1 - Each chip in a short stack is more valuable in terms of
cash-equity than each chip in a large stack. By calling in this
situation I would have been risking chips of great value to pick up
chips of lesser value.
2 - Folding removes any chance of busting. By folding, I would give my
opponents a chance to bust on subsequent hands, which would move me up
to a bigger payday.
After looking at these factors, it seemed that folding was the clear
choice. But still, I had to think about how folding would effect my
ability to win the bracelet - which was my primary concern. Would I be
putting myself out of the running by giving up on so many chips? Not
really.
When there are more than two players remaining, each additional chip
you accumulate has a lesser impact on your ability to win the
tournament. So when the chip-equity decision is a wash, you are better
off folding than you are trying to accumulate more chips.
If you ever find yourself in a similar situation, you should also keep
in mind that there's a big difference between moving all-in and
calling all-in. When you move in, you can win the pot by forcing a
fold. When you call, this obviously isn't possible.
I decided to fold and wait for a better spot, and I'm very glad that I
did.
Rafe Furst
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